16322 Towerview Cir · Centerville, CA 96001

$159,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Manufactured · 446 Days on market

Built 1974

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lots of potential here for building of your dream home or ADU(s) while occupying the existing home on property. Located near end of a private road and backs to a open greenbelt. Property is within the sought after Grant School district. Hard to find West-side property with a country feel while only minutes to downtown.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1974
• Listed 446 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Off-street parking; 1 carport space
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a park; Mobile home
• Construction: Other foundation
• Exterior features: Rolling to upslope topography; Road surfaces: asphalt, dirt, and gravel

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Heating & cooling: Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Partial fencing
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $121 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 1.7% in Centerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#872 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Grant Elementary (math 65% / reading 80%, grade A, #116 of 1,571 statewide, top 8%, 643 students, 18% FRL); Shasta High (math 53% / reading 76%, grade B-, #165 of 1,170 statewide, top 15%, 1,333 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 16% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 54% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Shasta Union High average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 446 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $159k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,655 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 446 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.26%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-11,419
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $29,923
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96001

• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,397 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $986/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,243

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $211	-5% $166	+0% $121	+5% $76	+10% $31
Rent	-10% $11	-5% $66	+0% $121	+5% $176	+10% $231
Rate	-1.0pp $201	-0.5pp $161	base $121	+0.5pp $80	+1.0pp $38

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-22
   price $159,000 Active 446 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,000 Active 446 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,000 Active 444 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 443 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 442 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 441 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 440 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,000 Active 438 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 437 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $179,000 Active 435 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $179,000 Active 434 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,000 Active 433 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 432 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,000 Active 429 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 428 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 427 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 426 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 425 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,000 Active 424 DOM
20. 2026-01-17
    status Active
21. 2026-01-17
    price $179,000
22. 2025-09-11
    status Active
23. 2025-06-20
    price $164,900
24. 2025-05-18
    price $174,900
25. 2025-04-22
    price $184,900
26. 2025-02-17
    price $199,000
27. 2025-02-01
    listed $219,000 Active
28. 2022-01-26
    listed $150,000
29. 2009-07-31
    soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $986 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,208 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$222/yr (+$19/mo · 22.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 41 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,759
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$986
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,341
• − Management: −$1,341
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$1,236
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$297
• After-tax cash flow: $1,749/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shasta Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636600
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,080
• Composite: 46.01/100
• National rank: #2532
• State rank: #122 of 517 in CA

Livability — Centerville

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #872
• US rank: #23659

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centerville, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,817
• Household income: $72,484
• Rent vs Own: 39.0% rent · 61.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1458.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.25%
• Current HPI: 291.6191
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.55%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+110.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-17 Relisted — SAOR
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $179,000 SAOR
• 2025-09-11 Relisted — SAOR
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $164,900 SAOR
• 2025-05-18 Price Changed $174,900 SAOR
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $184,900 SAOR
• 2025-02-17 Price Changed $199,000 SAOR
• 2025-02-01 Listed $219,000 SAOR
• 2022-01-26 Listed $150,000 SAOR
• 2009-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $986 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.