3926 Ashleaf Pecan

San Antonio, TX 78261

$255,000D+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,557 sqft · Built 2011 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,413/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax + insurance: −$652
• HOA: −$49
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $-132/mo
• Annual: $-1,581/yr
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.21%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $71,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $255k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-132 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (5.4% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $232k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• North East ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #276 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cibolo Green (math 54% / reading 64%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 834 students, 26% FRL); Hill Middle (math 51% / reading 64%, grade B, #206 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 1,044 students, 28% FRL); Johnson H S (math 69% / reading 80%, grade B+, #82 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 3,202 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools average 26% FRL vs 41% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 44% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the North East ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 247 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.