33831 Camino Capistrano #19

San Juan Capistrano, CA 92675

$429,900C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1969 · Manufactured · Active · 242 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,746/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,254
• Tax + insurance: −$839
• HOA: −$404
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$997
• Net cashflow: $252/mo
• Annual: $3,028/yr
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.73%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $120,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $430k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $252 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $430k).
• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $378k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#114 in CA, #4,023 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Capistrano Unified (suburban): math 50% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #64 of 517 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 106 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $120k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.3% in San Juan Capistrano — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.