12115 Talmadge Reach Dr

Atascocita, TX 77346

$449,000C+

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,964 sqft · Built 2019 · SingleFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,152/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax + insurance: −$1,276
• HOA: −$161
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,082
• Net cashflow: $279/mo
• Annual: $3,344/yr
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.29%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $125,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $449k).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ridge Creek El (math 26% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 1,125 students, 74% FRL); Autumn Ridge Middle (1,039 students, 71% FRL); Summer Creek H S (math 33% / reading 48%, grade F, #798 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 3,600 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 32% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 669 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.1% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,152/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($122k/yr) (locally 1072% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.