2514 Willows Rd

Ilwaco, WA 98644

$221,500B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 967 sqft · Built 1935 · SingleFamily · Active · 417 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,598/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,162
• Tax + insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $666/mo
• Annual: $7,989/yr
• Cap rate: 9.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.88%
• DSCR: 1.57
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $62,020

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $222k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $666 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $222k).
• It's been on market 417 days — a 12% lower offer ($195k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $195k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#205 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Ocean Beach School District (rural): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #212 of 291 in WA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Pacific County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pacific County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 417 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.