2514 Willows Rd · Ilwaco, WA 98644

$221,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 967 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 415 Days on market

Built 1935 0.34 ac lot $229/sqft · 41% below area Est $357k · 38% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a beach retreat? This 3 bedroom (with unfinished upper loft), 1.5 bath cabin sits on a large wooded 2 parcel lot with a partial wrap around porch. New roof installed 3 years ago with partial window replacement done by Andersen Windows (possible warranty transfer) also done 3 years ago. With some TLC, this can be a true piece of paradise. The ideas are endless for your perfect home away from home. With less than a quarter mile to the ocean, enjoy the sounds of the ocean while you sit outside. Just a 5 minute walk from Beards Hollow and minutes from Long Beach shops & restaurants. BUYERS to do due diligence!!! County shows 917 sqft but home is 1200 sqft. SHORT SALE AS-IS SALE!

Key facts

• Large wooded lot
• New roof
• 0.34 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE WOODED LOT
• PARTIAL WRAP AROUND PORCH
• NEW ROOF
• PARTIAL WINDOW REPLACEMENT
• WALK FROM BEARDS HOLLOW
• MINUTES FROM LONG BEACH SHOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $222k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $666 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $222k).
• Recommended offer: $195k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#205 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Ocean Beach School District (rural): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #212 of 291 in WA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Pacific County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Pacific County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 415 days — a 12% lower offer ($195k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $194,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 415 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.88%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $356,583
• List price: $221,500
• Delta: -37.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
991 30th St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,064 (+10%)	17mo	$410,000	$385	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $88,269
• Equity at exit: $120,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.75×
• Total profit: $232,671
• Equity at exit: $202,818

Cash invested: $62,020 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98644

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,598 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,162
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,591/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $666

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,755

Max offer price $221,500

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,375
• Closing costs: $6,645
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $221,500 Active 415 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $221,500 Active 414 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $221,500 Active 413 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $221,500 Active 412 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $221,500 Active 411 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $221,500 Active 410 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $221,500 Active 409 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $221,500 Active 406 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $221,500 Active 405 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $221,500 Active 404 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $221,500 Active 403 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $221,500 Active 400 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $221,500 Active 399 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $221,500 Active 398 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $221,500 Active 397 DOM
16. 2025-10-09
    price $221,500

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    Looking for a beach retreat? This 3 bedroom (with unfinished upper loft), 1.5 bath cabin sits on a large wooded 2 parcel lot with a partial wrap around porch. New roof installed 3 years ago with partial window replacement done by Andersen Windows (possible warranty transfer) also done 3 years ago. With some TLC, this can be a true piece of paradise. The ideas are endless for your perfect home away from home. With less than a quarter mile to the ocean, enjoy the sounds of the ocean while you sit outside. Just a 5 minute walk from Beards Hollow and minutes from Long Beach shops & restaurants. BUYERS to do due diligence!!! County shows 917 sqft but home is 1200 sqft. SHORT SALE AS-IS SALE!

17. 2025-10-09
    price $221,500 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    Looking for a beach retreat? This 3 bedroom (with unfinished upper loft), 1.5 bath cabin sits on a large wooded 2 parcel lot with a partial wrap around porch. New roof installed 3 years ago with partial window replacement done by Andersen Windows (possible warranty transfer) also done 3 years ago. With some TLC, this can be a true piece of paradise. The ideas are endless for your perfect home away from home. With less than a quarter mile to the ocean, enjoy the sounds of the ocean while you sit outside. Just a 5 minute walk from Beards Hollow and minutes from Long Beach shops & restaurants. BUYERS to do due diligence!!! County shows 917 sqft but home is 1200 sqft. SHORT SALE AS-IS SALE!

18. 2025-09-30
    status Active 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    Looking for a beach retreat? This 3 bedroom (with unfinished upper loft), 1.5 bath cabin sits on a large wooded 2 parcel lot with a partial wrap around porch. New roof installed 3 years ago with partial window replacement done by Andersen Windows (possible warranty transfer) also done 3 years ago. With some TLC, this can be a true piece of paradise. The ideas are endless for your perfect home away from home. With less than a quarter mile to the ocean, enjoy the sounds of the ocean while you sit outside. Just a 5 minute walk from Beards Hollow and minutes from Long Beach shops & restaurants. BUYERS to do due diligence!!! County shows 917 sqft but home is 1200 sqft. SHORT SALE AS-IS SALE!

19. 2025-09-17
    status Active
20. 2025-09-15
    historical
21. 2025-07-15
    status Active 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    Looking for a beach retreat? This 3 bedroom (with unfinished upper loft), 1.5 bath cabin sits on a large wooded 2 parcel lot with a partial wrap around porch. New roof installed 3 years ago with partial window replacement done by Andersen Windows (possible warranty transfer) also done 3 years ago. With some TLC, this can be a true piece of paradise. The ideas are endless for your perfect home away from home. With less than a quarter mile to the ocean, enjoy the sounds of the ocean while you sit outside. Just a 5 minute walk from Beards Hollow and minutes from Long Beach shops & restaurants. BUYERS to do due diligence!!! County shows 917 sqft but home is 1200 sqft. SHORT SALE AS-IS SALE!

22. 2025-07-15
    price $232,500 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    Looking for a beach retreat? This 3 bedroom (with unfinished upper loft), 1.5 bath cabin sits on a large wooded 2 parcel lot with a partial wrap around porch. New roof installed 3 years ago with partial window replacement done by Andersen Windows (possible warranty transfer) also done 3 years ago. With some TLC, this can be a true piece of paradise. The ideas are endless for your perfect home away from home. With less than a quarter mile to the ocean, enjoy the sounds of the ocean while you sit outside. Just a 5 minute walk from Beards Hollow and minutes from Long Beach shops & restaurants. BUYERS to do due diligence!!! County shows 917 sqft but home is 1200 sqft. SHORT SALE AS-IS SALE!

23. 2025-07-11
    status Active
24. 2025-07-11
    price $232,500
25. 2025-05-28
    status Pending
26. 2025-05-27
    historical Active Under Contract 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    Looking for a beach retreat? This 3 bedroom (with unfinished upper loft), 1.5 bath cabin sits on a large wooded 2 parcel lot with a partial wrap around porch. New roof installed 3 years ago with partial window replacement done by Andersen Windows (possible warranty transfer) also done 3 years ago. With some TLC, this can be a true piece of paradise. The ideas are endless for your perfect home away from home. With less than a quarter mile to the ocean, enjoy the sounds of the ocean while you sit outside. Just a 5 minute walk from Beards Hollow and minutes from Long Beach shops & restaurants. BUYERS to do due diligence!!! County shows 917 sqft but home is 1200 sqft. SHORT SALE AS-IS SALE!

27. 2025-05-12
    price $234,900 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    Looking for a beach retreat? This 3 bedroom (with unfinished upper loft), 1.5 bath cabin sits on a large wooded 2 parcel lot with a partial wrap around porch. New roof installed 3 years ago with partial window replacement done by Andersen Windows (possible warranty transfer) also done 3 years ago. With some TLC, this can be a true piece of paradise. The ideas are endless for your perfect home away from home. With less than a quarter mile to the ocean, enjoy the sounds of the ocean while you sit outside. Just a 5 minute walk from Beards Hollow and minutes from Long Beach shops & restaurants. BUYERS to do due diligence!!! County shows 917 sqft but home is 1200 sqft. SHORT SALE AS-IS SALE!

28. 2025-05-12
    price $234,900

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    Looking for a beach retreat? This 3 bedroom (with unfinished upper loft), 1.5 bath cabin sits on a large wooded 2 parcel lot with a partial wrap around porch. New roof installed 3 years ago with partial window replacement done by Andersen Windows (possible warranty transfer) also done 3 years ago. With some TLC, this can be a true piece of paradise. The ideas are endless for your perfect home away from home. With less than a quarter mile to the ocean, enjoy the sounds of the ocean while you sit outside. Just a 5 minute walk from Beards Hollow and minutes from Long Beach shops & restaurants. BUYERS to do due diligence!!! County shows 917 sqft but home is 1200 sqft. SHORT SALE AS-IS SALE!

29. 2025-03-14
    listed $249,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    Looking for a beach retreat? This 3 bedroom (with unfinished upper loft), 1.5 bath cabin sits on a large wooded 2 parcel lot with a partial wrap around porch. New roof installed 3 years ago with partial window replacement done by Andersen Windows (possible warranty transfer) also done 3 years ago. With some TLC, this can be a true piece of paradise. The ideas are endless for your perfect home away from home. With less than a quarter mile to the ocean, enjoy the sounds of the ocean while you sit outside. Just a 5 minute walk from Beards Hollow and minutes from Long Beach shops & restaurants. BUYERS to do due diligence!!! County shows 917 sqft but home is 1200 sqft. SHORT SALE AS-IS SALE!

30. 2025-03-14
    listed $249,900 Active 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    Looking for a beach retreat? This 3 bedroom (with unfinished upper loft), 1.5 bath cabin sits on a large wooded 2 parcel lot with a partial wrap around porch. New roof installed 3 years ago with partial window replacement done by Andersen Windows (possible warranty transfer) also done 3 years ago. With some TLC, this can be a true piece of paradise. The ideas are endless for your perfect home away from home. With less than a quarter mile to the ocean, enjoy the sounds of the ocean while you sit outside. Just a 5 minute walk from Beards Hollow and minutes from Long Beach shops & restaurants. BUYERS to do due diligence!!! County shows 917 sqft but home is 1200 sqft. SHORT SALE AS-IS SALE!

31. 2022-03-18
    soldstatus $330,000 Closed
32. 2022-02-03
    status Pending
33. 2022-02-02
    listed $319,000 Active
34. 2020-09-21
    soldstatus $235,000 Sold
35. 2020-09-21
    soldstatus $235,000
36. 2020-07-21
    status Pending
37. 2020-07-15
    listed $229,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,591 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,171 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$579/yr (+$48/mo · 36.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥72°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,173
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,407
• − Property taxes: −$1,591
• − Insurance: −$1,108
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,494
• − Management: −$2,494
• − Depreciation: −$6,444
• Taxable income: $4,635
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,113
• After-tax cash flow: $6,877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ocean Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 5306060
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,549
• Composite: 37.37/100
• National rank: #8929
• State rank: #212 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ilwaco

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #205
• US rank: #5623

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 686

Population outlook (Pacific County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,636 people
• By 2030: 20,137 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 19,041 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 18,504 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 17,403 · -15.7%
• By 2100: 16,241 · -21.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 6% Iranian 5%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Pacific

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 49.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: 14.1pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: R+1.1 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+11.4 2008: D+14.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.59%
• Current HPI: 254.3311
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $221,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $221,500 RMLS
• 2025-09-30 Relisted — RMLS
• 2025-09-17 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-15 Relisted — RMLS
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $232,500 RMLS
• 2025-07-11 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $232,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-28 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-27 Contingent — RMLS
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $234,900 RMLS
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $234,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-14 Listed $249,900 RMLS
• 2025-03-14 Listed $249,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-18 Sold (MLS) $330,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-03 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-02 Listed $319,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2020-09-21 Sold (MLS) $235,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-21 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-15 Listed $229,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+16.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,591 · -6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.