3450 Toledo Ter #512

Chillum, MD 20782

$105,000C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 718 sqft · Built 1962 · Condo · Pending · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,699/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax + insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$678
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-23/mo
• Annual: $-274/yr
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.93%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 1.62%
• Cash to close: $29,400

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-274/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $101k (3.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#105 in MD, #4,157 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, cost of living D-.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: University Park Elementary (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #222 of 860 statewide, top 26%, 437 students, 53% FRL); Nicholas Orem Middle (math 4% / reading 20%, grade F, #202 of 225 statewide, top 91%, 1,138 students, 92% FRL); Northwestern High (math 15% / reading 32%, grade F, #169 of 222 statewide, top 76%, 2,346 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 53% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 156 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.3% in Chillum — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?