4231 Lilac Dr N

Robbinsdale, MN 55422

$319,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,332 sqft · Built 1953 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,612/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax + insurance: −$475
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $-89/mo
• Annual: $-1,069/yr
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.19%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $89,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (18.3% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $261k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#57 in MN, #1,378 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Robbinsdale Public School District (suburban): math 24% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #250 of 301 in MN (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lakeview Elementary (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #759 of 857 statewide, top 90%, 395 students, 78% FRL); Robbinsdale Middle (math 8% / reading 33%, grade F, #232 of 258 statewide, top 90%, 632 students, 77% FRL); Robbinsdale Cooper Senior High (math 12% / reading 42%, grade F, #369 of 471 statewide, top 79%, 1,630 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 41% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Robbinsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.