4231 Lilac Dr N · Robbinsdale, MN 55422

$319,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,332 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1953 10,454 sqft lot $137/sqft · 9% below area Est $350k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * * * Offer Deadline Monday May 4th at 11am * * * * Welcome to this charming mid-century home with modern updates and timeless character. The freshly painted interior and newly refinished hardwood floors welcome you upon entering the home. The main level offers a spacious living room with a stone mantel and gas fireplace, a formal dining room, four bedrooms that offer flexibility for a home office or den, a full bath with original mid-century tile, a large eat-in kitchen, and a back porch with floor to ceiling windows and doors. The lower level is full of possibilities and features an original bar, a wood burning fireplace, bench seating, another bathroom with incredible original t

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1953

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with automatic opener; 2-car garage (approx. 22 x 18)
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas
• Home design: Residential single-level design (one level listed); Main-floor primary bedroom; Main-floor bedrooms; Tree-lined city street location
• Construction: Block foundation (approx. 45 x 26 foundation); Roof replaced or 8 years old or newer
• Exterior features: Stone and stucco exterior; Deck; Rear porch; Porch; Chain-link fencing; Light tree coverage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Kitchen configured with eat-in area
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary on main floor; main-floor bedrooms); Bedroom sizes on main level: 13 x 10; 12 x 9; 12 x 10; 11 x 9
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full main-floor bathroom; 1 three-quarter basement bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished full basement; Finished lower-level recreation and family rooms; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal dining room; Natural woodwork; Kitchen window; Deck and rear porch; Porch; Water softener (owned); 2 fireplaces (gas and wood; located in family room and living room)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry area on lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Robbinsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#57 in MN, #1,378 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Robbinsdale Public School District (suburban): math 24% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #250 of 301 in MN (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lakeview Elementary (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #759 of 857 statewide, top 90%, 395 students, 78% FRL); Robbinsdale Middle (math 8% / reading 33%, grade F, #232 of 258 statewide, top 90%, 632 students, 77% FRL); Robbinsdale Cooper Senior High (math 12% / reading 42%, grade F, #369 of 471 statewide, top 79%, 1,630 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 41% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $261,242 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.19%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $349,703
• List price: $319,900
• Delta: -8.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-55,603
• Equity at exit: $47,698

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-47,773
• Equity at exit: $27,659

Cash invested: $89,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55422

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,612 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$342 /mo · $4,104/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $-89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,725

Max offer price $304,159

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $1	+0% $-89	+5% $-180	+10% $-270
Rent	-10% $-295	-5% $-192	+0% $-89	+5% $14	+10% $117
Rate	-1.0pp $72	-0.5pp $-8	base $-89	+0.5pp $-172	+1.0pp $-256

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,975
• Closing costs: $9,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 1117-char remark
2. 2026-05-04
   historical Contingent - Inspection 1117-char remark
3. 2026-05-01
   listed $319,900 Active 1117-char remark
4. 2026-04-28
   historical $319,900 1117-char remark
5. 2001-10-20
   historical
6. 2001-08-20
   listed $195,900
7. 1994-10-29
   historical
8. 1994-06-29
   listed $117,700
9. 1987-03-01
   soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,104 · $342/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,104 · $342/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,919
• − Property taxes: −$4,104
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,508
• − Management: −$2,508
• − Depreciation: −$9,306
• Taxable loss: −$6,596
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,583
• After-tax cash flow: $514/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Robbinsdale Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2731780
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,234
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6240
• State rank: #250 of 301 in MN

Livability — Robbinsdale

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #1378

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Robbinsdale, MN
• County: Hennepin County · 1,150,272 people
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 28,452
• Household income: $93,914
• Rent vs Own: 25.9% rent · 74.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1135.0

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 14% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, United Kingdom, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -313.61%
• Current HPI: 242.8812
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.72%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+255.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Sold (MLS) $320,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $319,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Coming Soon $319,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-10-20 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-08-20 Listed $195,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-10-29 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-06-29 Listed $117,700 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,104 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.