1245 W Cienega Ave Sp 162

San Dimas, CA 91773

$149,000A-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · Built 1971 · Manufactured · Active · 289 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,863/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $1,232/mo
• Annual: $14,786/yr
• Cap rate: 16.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.44%
• DSCR: 2.58
• 1% rule: 1.92%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $149k).
• It's been on market 289 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#192 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, commute A; Watch: cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Bonita Unified (suburban): math 59% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #151 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gladstone Elementary (515 students, 30% FRL); Lone Hill Middle (912 students, 40% FRL); San Dimas High (math 70% / reading 90%, grade A, #41 of 1,170 statewide, top 4%, 1,251 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 64% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Bonita Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 91 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 2.5% in San Dimas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 289 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.