5618 Bartonsville Rd

Bartonsville, MD 21704

$289,900C-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 690 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,768/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax + insurance: −$345
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $322/mo
• Annual: $3,859/yr
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.75%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $81,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $322 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (4.5% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $277k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#335 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Frederick County Public Schools (other): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #4 of 24 in MD (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oakdale Elementary (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #92 of 860 statewide, top 11%, 1,028 students, 16% FRL); Oakdale Middle (math 24% / reading 58%, grade F, #20 of 225 statewide, top 10%, 1,057 students, 11% FRL); Oakdale High (math 77% / reading 87%, grade A, #15 of 222 statewide, top 6%, 1,622 students, 14% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 35% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Frederick County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 86 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,562 units permitted in Frederick County in 2024 (374 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Frederick County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $290k implies a 326% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.