5618 Bartonsville Rd · Bartonsville, MD 21704

$289,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 690 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1950 0.60 ac lot Est $300k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

🏡 NO HOA + . 60 ACRES in Frederick! USDA 0% DOWN eligible for qualified buyers🌳 Welcome to 5618 Bartonsville Rd — a fantastic single family home in an unbeatable location! Just a stroll to Avery’s Seafood and Spring Ridge Shopping Center, yet tucked away with peaceful outdoor space and room to breathe. ✨ Home Features: 🛏 4 Bedrooms 🛁 1.5 Bathrooms 👑 Owner’s Suite on the Main Level 🍳 Huge Updated Gourmet Kitchen with Breakfast Bar 🧺 Main Level Laundry 🌳 Deck + Fenced Backyard + Shed 🪑 Glorious Front Porch for Relaxing Evenings 🆕 Fresh Paint, New Carpeting & Laminate Flooring 🏠 Metal Roof 🔨 Unfinished Basement Ready for Your Ideas Enjoy tranquility and space while be

Key facts

• 0.6 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $322 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#335 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Frederick County Public Schools (other): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #4 of 24 in MD (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 85 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,562 units permitted in Frederick County in 2024 (374 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Frederick County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $290k implies a 326% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $276,766 (4.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.75%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $300,150
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5618 Bartonsville Rd	0.00mi	4/1.5	690 (0%)	1mo	$300,000	$435	97

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-27,977
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-4,013
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21704

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,768 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,361

Max offer price $289,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $486	-5% $404	+0% $322	+5% $240	+10% $157
Rent	-10% $103	-5% $212	+0% $322	+5% $431	+10% $540
Rate	-1.0pp $468	-0.5pp $395	base $322	+0.5pp $246	+1.0pp $170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   price $289,900
3. 2026-03-24
   status Active
4. 2026-03-17
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-16
   historical
6. 2026-03-13
   listed $335,000 Active
7. 1993-12-16
   soldstatus $68,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,685 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,923 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$237/yr (+$20/mo · 8.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,212
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,657
• − Management: −$2,657
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$909
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$218
• After-tax cash flow: $4,077/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frederick County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400330
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $84,020
• Composite: 33.54/100
• National rank: #5429
• State rank: #4 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bartonsville

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #335
• US rank: #17782

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bartonsville, MD
• County: Frederick County · 171,753 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 20,006
• Household income: $161,063
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 81.0

Population outlook (Frederick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 269,438 people
• By 2030: 280,160 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 298,408 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 311,062 · +15.4%
• By 2075: 342,819 · +27.2%
• By 2100: 351,361 · +30.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Asian 17% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 6% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Frederick

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.8) · D 53.2% · R 44.4% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -1.0pp · 2024: 8.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.8 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: R+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.95%
• Current HPI: 265.6266
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+326.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $289,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-24 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-17 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-16 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $335,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1993-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,685 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.