4314 Pancake Hill Rd

Bemus Point, NY 14712

$184,975B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,917/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$221
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $323/mo
• Annual: $3,874/yr
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.48%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $51,793

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#539 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Bemus Point Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #238 of 755 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $185k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 1.8% in Bemus Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.