4314 Pancake Hill Rd · Bemus Point, NY 14712

$184,975

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1994 2.79 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEMUS Area COUNTRY Living. .. 4+ ACRES on Quiet Rural Roadway close to Top Rated Schools and minutes to Town or Chautauqua Lake. .. In MOVE-IN CONDITION---This 1994 Manufactured Double-Wide has a Full High and Dry Concrete Basement (EASILY FINISHED and with Two Stairwells), ,Attached 24x28 3 Car+ Garage, ,Breezeway, ,and Covered Rear Patio with Enclosure. .. Newer Roof, ,Furnace, ,and Central Air plus Appliance Updates. .. A GREAT COUNTRY SETTING in a Demand LOCALE. .. I Have KEYS. .. 4314 Pancake Hill Rd (Off Rt 430 to Dutch Hollow or Belleview Rds)--Bemus Point. .. Possible Short Term OWNER FINANCING with Substantial Down-Payment. .

Key facts

• Master suite
• 4.2 acres
• Ample cupboard space

Tags

• 4.2 ACRES
• SPACIOUS BREEZEWAY
• LARGE KITCHEN
• AMPLE CUPBOARD SPACE
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• MASTER SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 1.8% in Bemus Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#539 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Bemus Point Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #238 of 755 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $185k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $184,975

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.48%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $121,277
• Equity at exit: $166,640

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.58×
• Total profit: $340,925
• Equity at exit: $359,366

Cash invested: $51,793 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14712

• Home prices YoY: 15.3%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,917 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,730/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,508

Max offer price $184,975

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,244
• Closing costs: $5,549
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   listed $184,975 Active
3. 2012-01-24
   soldstatus $110,000
4. 2010-11-08
   soldstatus $110,000 642-char remark

   Show marketing remark (642 chars)

   BEMUS Area COUNTRY Living. .. 4+ ACRES on Quiet Rural Roadway close to Top Rated Schools and minutes to Town or Chautauqua Lake. .. In MOVE-IN CONDITION---This 1994 Manufactured Double-Wide has a Full High and Dry Concrete Basement (EASILY FINISHED and with Two Stairwells), ,Attached 24x28 3 Car+ Garage, ,Breezeway, ,and Covered Rear Patio with Enclosure. .. Newer Roof, ,Furnace, ,and Central Air plus Appliance Updates. .. A GREAT COUNTRY SETTING in a Demand LOCALE. .. I Have KEYS. .. 4314 Pancake Hill Rd (Off Rt 430 to Dutch Hollow or Belleview Rds)--Bemus Point. .. Possible Short Term OWNER FINANCING with Substantial Down-Payment. .

5. 2010-08-11
   listed $114,900 642-char remark

   Show marketing remark (642 chars)

   BEMUS Area COUNTRY Living. .. 4+ ACRES on Quiet Rural Roadway close to Top Rated Schools and minutes to Town or Chautauqua Lake. .. In MOVE-IN CONDITION---This 1994 Manufactured Double-Wide has a Full High and Dry Concrete Basement (EASILY FINISHED and with Two Stairwells), ,Attached 24x28 3 Car+ Garage, ,Breezeway, ,and Covered Rear Patio with Enclosure. .. Newer Roof, ,Furnace, ,and Central Air plus Appliance Updates. .. A GREAT COUNTRY SETTING in a Demand LOCALE. .. I Have KEYS. .. 4314 Pancake Hill Rd (Off Rt 430 to Dutch Hollow or Belleview Rds)--Bemus Point. .. Possible Short Term OWNER FINANCING with Substantial Down-Payment. .

6. 2009-10-01
   listed $114,900
7. 2005-11-01
   soldstatus $13,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,730 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,428 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: +$698/yr (+$58/mo · 40.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,999
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,361
• − Property taxes: −$1,730
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,840
• − Management: −$1,840
• − Depreciation: −$5,381
• Taxable income: $921
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$221
• After-tax cash flow: $3,653/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bemus Point Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604530
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,968
• Composite: 55.15/100
• National rank: #2753
• State rank: #238 of 755 in NY

Livability — Bemus Point

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #539
• US rank: #9687

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,079

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 48.79%
• Current HPI: 368.206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1270.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $184,975 UNYREIS
• 2012-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2010-11-08 Sold (MLS) $110,000 UNYREIS
• 2010-08-11 Listed $114,900 UNYREIS
• 2009-10-01 Listed $114,900 UNYREIS
• 2005-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $13,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,730 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.