20 Serpens Dr #223

Lillington, NC 27501

$243,764D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,540 sqft · Built 2026 · Condo · Active · 114 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,042/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,278
• Tax + insurance: −$406
• HOA: −$123
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-195/mo
• Annual: $-2,336/yr
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.42%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $68,254

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $244k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (16.2% below list).
• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $204k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#101 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Angier Elementary (math 21% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,218 of 1,410 statewide, top 87%, 356 students, 80% FRL); Harnett Central Middle (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #323 of 475 statewide, top 68%, 1,024 students, 63% FRL); Harnett Central High (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #334 of 535 statewide, top 64%, 1,474 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 51% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 817 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.6% in Lillington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?