Is 20 Serpens Dr #223 in Lillington, NC a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 5.3% cap rate and $-195/mo modeled cash flow at a $243,764 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 20 Serpens Dr #223?

The modeled cap rate is 5.3% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,042/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D- Composite 38.33

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +9.2/15.0
Cash flow +8.9/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.9/10.0
Livability +3.6/5.0
1% rule +3.4/10.0
Rent growth +2.9/5.0
DSCR +2.5/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$243,764

20 Serpens Dr #223 · Lillington, NC 27501

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,540 sqft · Condo · 114 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Garage $158/sqft · at area comps Est $253k · at est. $123/mo HOA · 6% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Hallie at Powell, a home designed for modern living and effortless style. Step inside to a bright, open first floor with soaring 9-foot ceilings, where every corner is filled with natural light. The heart of the home is the kitchen, featuring a center island with granite countertops, a 50/50 stainless steel undermount sink, and a suite of stainless steel appliances -- perfect for everyday meals or entertaining friends. Adjacent to the kitchen, the great room flows seamlessly, offering space for cozy family nights or lively gatherings.

Key facts

Great room
Granite countertops
Center island

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $244k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (11.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (16.2% below list).
Recommended offer: $204k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.6% in Lillington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 71/100 on livability (#101 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Angier Elementary (math 21% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,218 of 1,410 statewide, top 87%, 356 students, 80% FRL); Harnett Central Middle (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #323 of 475 statewide, top 68%, 1,024 students, 63% FRL); Harnett Central High (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #334 of 535 statewide, top 64%, 1,474 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 51% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 817 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $204,171 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.84% ✗
Cap rate: 5.33%
Cash-on-cash: -3.42%
DSCR: 0.85
GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $253,305
List price: $243,764
Delta: -3.77%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28 Serpens Dr #221	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,540 (0%)	1mo	$243,233	$158	99
39 Virgo Dr	0.20mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,658 (+8%)	1mo	$255,000	$154	72
237 Chedworth Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,820 (+18%)	0mo	$314,500	$173	62
76 Springfield Ln	1.15mi	3/2.0	1,523 (-1%)	1mo	$265,000	$174	61
456 Chedworth Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,172 (-24%)	0mo	$299,900	$256	57
25 Ashcott Dr	1.45mi	3/2.0	1,599 (+4%)	1mo	$315,000	$197	56
46 Foxton Pl	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-14%)	1mo	$319,900	$243	54
31 Rusling Leaf Dr	1.42mi	3/2.5	1,418 (-8%)	0mo	$239,990	$169	52
228 Chapel St	1.12mi	3/2.5	1,749 (+14%)	0mo	$307,990	$176	42
278 Chapel St	1.07mi	3/2.5	1,749 (+14%)	1mo	$322,990	$185	41
319 Providence Creek Dr	1.30mi	3/2.5	1,866 (+21%)	0mo	$342,744	$184	40
157 Gianna Dr	0.81mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,903 (+24%)	1mo	$299,990	$158	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -23.8%
Equity multiple: 0.20×
Total profit: $-54,887
Equity at exit: $36,346

10-year hold

IRR: -24.0%
Equity multiple: -0.11×
Total profit: $-75,645
Equity at exit: $21,076

Cash invested: $68,254 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 0 active · 2 under contract

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 27501

Home prices YoY: -11.4%
Rents YoY: 1.5%
Active inventory: 817
Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,042 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,278
Tax est. 1.5%: −$305 /mo · $3,656/yr
Insurance: −$102
HOA: −$123
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
Net cashflow: $-195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,288

Max offer price $215,598

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-26	-5% $-110	+0% $-195	+5% $-279	+10% $-363
Rent	-10% $-356	-5% $-275	+0% $-195	+5% $-114	+10% $-33
Rate	-1.0pp $-72	-0.5pp $-133	base $-195	+0.5pp $-258	+1.0pp $-322

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $60,941
Closing costs: $7,313
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
265 Royal Meadow Dr Angier, NC	4.0	2.5	1800	$1,830	$1.02	72d	1	0.08mi
19 Virgo Dr Angier, NC	3.0	2.5	1418	$1,850	$1.30	72d	1	0.24mi
50 Chedworth Dr Angier, NC	3.0	2.0	1384	$2,095	$1.51	72d	1	0.40mi
59 Ivy Bank Dr Angier, NC	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,729	$1.31	72d	1	0.47mi
59 Ivy Bank Dr Angier, NC	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,729	$1.31	70d	1	0.47mi
18 March Creek Dr Fuquay Varina, NC	3.0	2.5	1418	$1,800	$1.27	72d	1	1.05mi
198 Moore Creek Dr Fuquay Varina, NC	4.0	2.0	1764	$2,195	$1.24	63d	1	1.18mi
56 Oxford Dr Angier, NC	3.0	2.0	1693	$1,600	$0.95	72d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Lot approximately 0.04 acres (about 95' x 20')Private maintained paved roadsCommunity features include pool, playground and sidewalks
HOA & community: Community association managed by Charleston ManagementAnnual association feeAssociation amenities: pool, playground, dog park, picnic area, trails, sidewalks, landscaping, grounds and structure maintenanceAssociation fee covers grounds and structure maintenance, pest control, road maintenance, sewer, snow removal, and storm water maintenance

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage (1 space)Driveway with garage door openerAdditional open parking (about 20 spaces)Ample guest/overflow parking (total parking listed as 222)
Security: Smart lock(s)
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerNatural gas connected
Home design: Townhouse with two levelsEntry level: 1Faces northeast2+ common walls
Construction: Vinyl sidingArchitectural shingle roofSlab foundationBuilt by Mattamy Homes (model: The Hallie)
Exterior features: PatioRain guttersSmart lock(s)Privacy vinyl fencing

Interior

Kitchen: Gas rangeMicrowaveGarbage disposalStainless steel appliancesSmart appliance(s)
Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
Flooring: Combination flooring
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heating and coolingForced airHeat pumpENERGY STAR qualified equipmentZoned cooling
Interior features: Entrance foyerKitchen islandPantryGranite and quartz countersWalk-in closet(s)Bathtub/shower combinationWalk-in showerSmart homeENERGY STAR qualified doors and windowsSliding doors
Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry (washer and electric dryer hookups)Washer hookup inside on upper level

HOA detail $123/mo · $1,476/yr condo

Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $243,764 Active 114 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $243,764 Active 113 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $243,764 Active 112 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $243,764 Active 111 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $243,764 Active 110 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $243,764 Active 109 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $243,764 Active 106 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $243,764 Active 104 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $243,764 Active 102 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $243,764 Active 100 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $243,764 Active 98 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $243,764 Active 97 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $243,764 Active 96 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $243,764 Active 93 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $243,764 Active 91 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $243,764 Active 90 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $243,764 Active 89 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $243,764 Active 88 DOM
2026-07-12

days on market $243,764 Active 87 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $243,764 Active 86 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $243,764 Active 85 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $243,764 Active 84 DOM
2026-07-08

days on market $243,764 Active 83 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $243,764 Active 82 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $243,764 Active 81 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $243,764 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-04

days on market $243,764 Active 79 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $243,764 Active 78 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $243,764 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $243,764 Active 76 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $243,764 Active 75 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $243,764 Active 74 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $243,764 Active 73 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $243,764 Active 72 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $243,764 Active 71 DOM
2026-06-25

days on market $243,764 Active 69 DOM
2026-06-23

days on market $243,764 Active 67 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $243,764 Active 66 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $243,764 Active 63 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $243,764 Active 62 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $243,764 Active 61 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $243,764 Active 60 DOM
2026-06-14

days on market $243,764 Active 58 DOM
2026-06-10

days on market $243,764 Active 55 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $243,764 Active 54 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $243,764 Active 53 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $243,764 Active 52 DOM
2026-06-05

days on market $243,764 Active 49 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $243,764 Active 48 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $243,764 Active 47 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $24,501
− Mortgage interest: −$13,655
− Property taxes: −$3,656
− Insurance: −$1,219
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,960
− Management: −$1,960
− HOA: −$1,476
− Depreciation: −$7,091
Taxable loss: −$6,517

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,564
After-tax cash flow: $-772/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern townhome is in excellent condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a bright, open floor plan and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
Both Replace luxury vinyl flooring with hardwood — Improves aesthetics and is more durable ↑
Both Install smart home automation — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary North Harnett Primary Middle Harnett Central Middle F NC #323/475 Nat'l #8,497/14,009 High Harnett Central High D- NC #334/535 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Harnett County Schools
NCES district ID: 3702010
Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
Median HH income: $45,400
Composite: 29.88/100
National rank: #6397
State rank: #130 of 178 in NC

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Lillington

Score: 71/100
State rank: #101
US rank: #6653

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Lillington, NC
County: Harnett County · 153,758 people
City population: 21,419
Metro: Fayetteville, NC
Population (ZIP): 24,806
Household income: $73,336
Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

Population outlook (Harnett County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 153,758 people
By 2030: 166,581 · +8.3%
By 2040: 192,741 · +25.4%
By 2050: 218,332 · +42.0%
By 2075: 275,422 · +79.1%
By 2100: 313,511 · +103.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harnett

2024 margin: Strong R (+25.1) · D 36.9% · R 62.0% · Other 1.1%
2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -25.1pp
All cycles: 2024: R+25.1 2020: R+22.4 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -31.84%
Current HPI: 248.5302
Rent YoY: ▲ 1.47%
Metro: Fayetteville, NC
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Financial Services	2	$213B
#17 Bank of America Charlotte $192.4B #166 Truist Financial Charlotte $20.5B
Retail	2	$95B
#52 Lowe's Mooresville $83.7B #337 Advance Auto Parts Raleigh $11.2B
Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
#114 Honeywell International Charlotte $37.9B
Metals / Steel	1	$35B
#121 Nucor Charlotte $35.4B
Utilities	1	$30B
#133 Duke Energy Charlotte $29.9B
Industrial Machinery	1	$19B
#182 Trane Technologies Davidson $18.9B

Price history

+0.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2026-05-24 Price Changed $243,764 TMLS
2026-04-16 Listed $243,367 TMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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