13144 Coxswain Ct

Hudson, FL 34667

$179,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Pending · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,309/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$755
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $126/mo
• Annual: $1,510/yr
• Cap rate: 9.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.16%
• DSCR: 1.59
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#289 in FL, #4,856 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gulf Highlands Elementary School (math 29% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 714 students, 89% FRL); Fivay High School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,610 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 799 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.4% in Hudson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,309/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 946% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.