2542 Kingfisher Dr

Lely Resort, FL 34112

$860,900F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,713 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,848/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,515
• Tax + insurance: −$1,435
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $-3,700/mo
• Annual: $-44,399/yr
• Cap rate: 1.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.42%
• DSCR: 0.18
• 1% rule: 0.33%
• Cash to close: $241,052

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $861k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-44k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (62.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (66.9% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($848k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $285k (66.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#786 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lely Elementary School (math 45% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 499 students, 62% FRL); East Naples Middle School (math 56% / reading 44%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 854 students, 63% FRL); Lely High School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,504 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Collier average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 1015 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 110d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 1.1% vs local median 2.4% in Lely Resort — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $2,848/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.