2542 Kingfisher Dr · Lely Resort, FL 34112

$860,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,713 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $317/sqft · at area comps Est $898k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Cash flow +0.6/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 Bedrooms, 3 Bathrooms, Den, Great Room, 2-Car Garage, 2,070 a/c sq. ft.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 16 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $861k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-44k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (62.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (66.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $285k (66.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.1% vs local median 2.4% in Lely Resort — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#786 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lely Elementary School (math 45% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 499 students, 62% FRL); East Naples Middle School (math 56% / reading 44%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 854 students, 63% FRL); Lely High School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,504 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Collier average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 1015 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 110d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,848/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($848k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $284,753 (66.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.33% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.42%
• DSCR: 0.18
• GRM: 25.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $897,900
• List price: $860,900
• Delta: -4.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2553 Kingfisher Dr	0.03mi	3/4.0	2,770 (+2%)	6mo	$964,371	$348	86
2677 Hyacinth Pl	0.10mi	3/4.0	2,770 (+2%)	10mo	$913,799	$330	80
7834 Naples Heritage Dr	0.32mi	3/2.5	2,665 (-2%)	7mo	$1,260,000	$473	74
7719 Martino Cir	0.33mi	3/2.5	2,818 (+4%)	9mo	$860,000	$305	68
7793 Naples Heritage Dr	0.22mi	4/4.5 (+1)	2,819 (+4%)	16mo	$975,000	$346	59
7715 Naples Heritage Dr	0.26mi	3/3.0	2,369 (-13%)	14mo	$1,100,000	$464	55
7787 Martino Cir	0.38mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,973 (+10%)	8mo	$785,000	$264	54
7659 Martino Cir	0.43mi	3/3.5	2,911 (+7%)	14mo	$840,000	$289	54
7767 Martino Cir	0.33mi	3/3.5	2,966 (+9%)	19mo	$1,250,000	$421	51
7851 Founders Cir	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,578 (-5%)	6mo	$840,000	$326	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -56.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.59×
• Total profit: $-383,456
• Equity at exit: $128,363

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.78×
• Total profit: $-669,420
• Equity at exit: $74,435

Cash invested: $241,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 30 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $881,900 ($343/sqft)
• Median days on market: 114 d
• This list price: 37% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34112

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 1015
• Price-to-rent: 25.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,848 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,515
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,076 /mo · $12,914/yr
• Insurance: −$359
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $-3,700

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,531

Max offer price $325,513

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3,105	-5% $-3,402	+0% $-3,700	+5% $-3,997	+10% $-4,295
Rent	-10% $-3,925	-5% $-3,812	+0% $-3,700	+5% $-3,587	+10% $-3,475
Rate	-1.0pp $-3,266	-0.5pp $-3,481	base $-3,700	+0.5pp $-3,923	+1.0pp $-4,150

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $215,225
• Closing costs: $25,827
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7755 Martino Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2244	$9,000	$4.01	119d	1	0.31mi
7755 Martino Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2244	$8,500	$3.79	6d	1	0.31mi
7703 Martino Cir Naples, FL	4.0	4.0	3328	$7,500	$2.25	0d	1	0.32mi
7703 Martino Cir Naples, FL	4.0	4.0	3328	$7,500	$2.25	6d	1	0.32mi
2864 Bloomfield Way Naples, FL	4.0	3.0	2700	$6,500	$2.41	6d	1	0.35mi
2872 Bloomfield Way Naples, FL	4.0	4.0	2846	$7,950	$2.79	119d	1	0.35mi
7667 Martino Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2116	$13,000	$6.14	119d	1	0.39mi
7655 Martino Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2297	$9,000	$3.92	119d	1	0.42mi
2385 Hidden Lake Dr #10 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,950	$1.64	0d	1	0.44mi
7849 Founders Ln Naples, FL	4.0	2.0	2109	$8,500	$4.03	6d	1	0.69mi
7896 Founders Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1939	$4,300	$2.22	6d	1	0.80mi
3134 Juniper Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2102	$3,276	$1.56	3d	3	1.06mi
7786 Scarlet Ct Naples, FL	4.0	2.0	2074	$4,300	$2.07	109d	1	1.10mi
2305 Ariane Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1842	$3,600	$1.95	6d	1	1.11mi
2305 Ariane Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1842	$3,800	$2.06	117d	1	1.11mi
172 Plantation Cir #172 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1859	$5,800	$3.12	119d	1	1.12mi
7932 Princeton Dr Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2185	$10,700	$4.90	119d	1	1.13mi
3038 Juniper Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2156	$3,200	$1.48	119d	1	1.15mi
4923 Cerromar Dr Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2422	$13,000	$5.37	119d	1	1.24mi
6900 Dennis Cir Unit J-205 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1900	$5,800	$3.05	109d	1	1.34mi
4924 Sedgewood Ln Naples, FL	3.0	3.5	2617	$15,000	$5.73	119d	1	1.37mi
4618 Ashton Ct Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2084	$4,000	$1.92	6d	1	1.37mi
458 Countryside Dr Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2127	$9,000	$4.23	6d	1	1.38mi
458 Countryside Dr Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2127	$9,000	$4.23	119d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $860,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $860,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $860,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $860,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $860,900 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $860,900 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $860,900 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $860,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   remarks 73-char remark
10. 2026-06-03
    listed $850,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,170
• − Mortgage interest: −$48,224
• − Property taxes: −$12,914
• − Insurance: −$4,304
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,734
• − Management: −$2,734
• − Depreciation: −$25,044
• Taxable loss: −$61,783
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$14,828
• After-tax cash flow: $-29,571/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It has a good layout and is ready for immediate occupancy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make a home look more inviting ↑
• Both Lighting — Modern lighting fixtures can improve the home's ambiance and value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lely Elementary School D- FL #1,247/2,144 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle East Naples Middle School C FL #254/571 Nat'l #3,460/14,009 High Lely High School F FL #304/667 Nat'l #8,293/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Lely Resort

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #786
• US rank: #17981

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A- Housing D- Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 420,858 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,193
• Household income: $69,842
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -235.10%
• Current HPI: 256.9182
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.69%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B