204 Hobson Ave

Shelbyville, TN 37160

$219,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,924 sqft · Built 1946 · SingleFamily · Pending · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,715/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $34/mo
• Annual: $403/yr
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.66%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $61,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($403/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (21.7% below list).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $171k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#183 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, employment D.
• Bedford County (rural): math 24% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #97 of 139 in TN (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 354 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 630 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bedford County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $219k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.6% in Shelbyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.