204 Hobson Ave · Shelbyville, TN 37160

$219,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,924 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1946 0.29 ac lot $114/sqft · 39% below area Est $246k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Complete remodel with new windows & doors, new bath, paint thruout, LTV flooring main level, carpet upstairs, new cabinets and stainless appliances, new light fixtures, new side and back decks. Large backyard with privacy fence across back.

Key facts

• New bath
• New doors
• Stainless appliances

Tags

• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW DOORS
• NEW BATH
• NEW CABINETS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• NEW LIGHT FIXTURES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($403/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.6% in Shelbyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#183 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, employment D.
• Bedford County (rural): math 24% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #97 of 139 in TN (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 355 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 630 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bedford County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $219k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,491 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.66%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,143
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: -11.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 S Thompson St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,776 (-8%)	19mo	$291,500	$164	56
617 Deery St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,841 (-4%)	18mo	$265,000	$144	43
616 S Brittain St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (-6%)	13mo	$80,000	$44	36
720 Alton Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,712 (-11%)	23mo	$267,500	$156	30
630 South Brittain St	0.74mi	3/2.0	2,080 (+8%)	23mo	$220,000	$106	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-33,442
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-26,742
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37160

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,715 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $978/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,672

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $158	-5% $96	+0% $34	+5% $-28	+10% $-90
Rent	-10% $-102	-5% $-34	+0% $34	+5% $101	+10% $169
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $89	base $34	+0.5pp $-23	+1.0pp $-81

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 Sunlite Rd Shelbyville, TN	2.0–3.0	2.0	1147	$1,130	$0.99	24d	1	0.68mi
303 Lee Ln Shelbyville, TN	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,150	$1.28	44d	1	1.23mi
105 Kingwood Ave Shelbyville, TN	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,650	$1.32	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $219,000 Pending 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $219,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $219,000 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    price $229,900 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Complete remodel with new windows & doors, new bath, paint thruout, LTV flooring main level, carpet upstairs, new cabinets and stainless appliances, new light fixtures, new side and back decks. Large backyard with privacy fence across back.

15. 2026-04-17
    price $239,900 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Complete remodel with new windows & doors, new bath, paint thruout, LTV flooring main level, carpet upstairs, new cabinets and stainless appliances, new light fixtures, new side and back decks. Large backyard with privacy fence across back.

16. 2026-03-28
    listed $249,900 Active 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Complete remodel with new windows & doors, new bath, paint thruout, LTV flooring main level, carpet upstairs, new cabinets and stainless appliances, new light fixtures, new side and back decks. Large backyard with privacy fence across back.

17. 2021-08-06
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $978 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,555 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$577/yr (+$48/mo · 59.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,579
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$978
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,646
• − Management: −$1,646
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$3,425
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$822
• After-tax cash flow: $1,225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bedford County
• NCES district ID: 4700180
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,704
• Composite: 20.03/100
• National rank: #8658
• State rank: #97 of 139 in TN

Livability — Shelbyville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #14818

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelbyville, TN
• County: Bedford County · 38,148 people
• City population: 38,148
• Metro: Shelbyville, TN
• Population (ZIP): 38,148
• Household income: $64,800
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1093.0

Population outlook (Bedford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,064 people
• By 2030: 52,954 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 56,534 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,482 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 65,597 · +28.5%
• By 2100: 68,030 · +33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bedford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.0) · D 20.5% · R 78.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.5pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -58.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.0 2020: R+51.9 2016: R+52.8 2012: R+40.3 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.18%
• Current HPI: 330.802
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Shelbyville, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+206.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $229,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $239,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-28 Listed $249,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $978 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.