515 5th St

Fairbury, NE 68352

$40,000B-

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · Built 1910 · Other · Pending · 156 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,021/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax + insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $489/mo
• Annual: $5,865/yr
• Cap rate: 20.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.37%
• DSCR: 3.33
• 1% rule: 2.55%
• Cash to close: $11,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $489 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#125 in NE, #4,843 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Fairbury Public Schools (town): math 39% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #101 of 111 in NE (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 21.0% vs local median 4.6% in Fairbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.