515 5th St · Fairbury, NE 68352

$40,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · Other public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1910 4,800 sqft lot ↓ 58% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The most unique place on the market. Apartment in back. Along with a store front. Opportunity awaits. Set up your showing today =)

Key facts

• Apartment in back
• Store front
• Built 1910

Tags

• APARTMENT IN BACK
• STORE FRONT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $489 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.0% vs local median 4.6% in Fairbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#125 in NE, #4,843 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Fairbury Public Schools (town): math 39% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #101 of 111 in NE (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $35,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.37%
• DSCR: 3.33
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $24,689
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.51×
• Total profit: $61,750
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68352

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,021 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,101/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $489

Break-even live

Break-even rent $403

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 130-char remark

   Show marketing remark (130 chars)

   The most unique place on the market. Apartment in back. Along with a store front. Opportunity awaits. Set up your showing today =)

2. 2026-04-23
   status Back On Market 130-char remark

   Show marketing remark (130 chars)

   The most unique place on the market. Apartment in back. Along with a store front. Opportunity awaits. Set up your showing today =)

3. 2026-04-13
   status Pending 130-char remark

   Show marketing remark (130 chars)

   The most unique place on the market. Apartment in back. Along with a store front. Opportunity awaits. Set up your showing today =)

4. 2026-03-30
   price $40,000 130-char remark

   Show marketing remark (130 chars)

   The most unique place on the market. Apartment in back. Along with a store front. Opportunity awaits. Set up your showing today =)

5. 2026-03-05
   price $58,000 130-char remark

   Show marketing remark (130 chars)

   The most unique place on the market. Apartment in back. Along with a store front. Opportunity awaits. Set up your showing today =)

6. 2025-11-21
   listed $60,000 New 130-char remark

   Show marketing remark (130 chars)

   The most unique place on the market. Apartment in back. Along with a store front. Opportunity awaits. Set up your showing today =)

7. 2025-07-26
   historical
8. 2025-03-13
   price $70,000
9. 2025-01-21
   price $88,000
10. 2024-07-25
    listed $90,000 New
11. 2023-11-29
    soldstatus $80,000
12. 2023-10-20
    status Pending
13. 2023-10-19
    historical
14. 2023-09-05
    price $80,000
15. 2023-07-03
    price $93,000
16. 2023-04-25
    listed $95,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,101 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,101 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,257
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$1,101
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$981
• − Management: −$981
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $5,591
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,342
• After-tax cash flow: $4,523/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbury Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3170440
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,800
• Composite: 31.97/100
• National rank: #5842
• State rank: #101 of 111 in NE

Livability — Fairbury

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #125
• US rank: #4843

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairbury, NE
• Population (ZIP): 4,897

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,961 people
• By 2030: 6,831 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 6,590 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 6,510 · -6.5%
• By 2075: 6,831 · -1.9%
• By 2100: 7,072 · +1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.3) · D 26.7% · R 72.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.6pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -45.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.3 2020: R+42.9 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+28.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.22%
• Current HPI: 229.7519
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

-57.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — GPRMLS
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — GPRMLS
• 2026-04-13 Pending — GPRMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $40,000 GPRMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $58,000 GPRMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $60,000 GPRMLS
• 2025-07-26 Listing Removed — GPRMLS
• 2025-03-13 Price Changed $70,000 GPRMLS
• 2025-01-21 Price Changed $88,000 GPRMLS
• 2024-07-25 Listed $90,000 GPRMLS
• 2023-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2023-10-20 Pending — GPRMLS
• 2023-10-19 Listing Removed — GPRMLS
• 2023-09-05 Price Changed $80,000 GPRMLS
• 2023-07-03 Price Changed $93,000 GPRMLS
• 2023-04-25 Listed $95,000 GPRMLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,101 · +36.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.