1430 Powell Grove Rd

Lebanon, TN 37090

$275,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1988 · Other · Active · 139 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,206/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$180
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $121/mo
• Annual: $1,452/yr
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.89%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $121 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (19.8% below list).
• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $221k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#49 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Wilson County (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #10 of 139 in TN (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southside Elementary (math 28% / reading 26%, grade F, #496 of 952 statewide, top 55%, 691 students, 0% FRL); Wilson Central High School (math 14% / reading 53%, grade F, #52 of 332 statewide, top 16%, 1,582 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 25% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Wilson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,927 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wilson County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $275k implies a 414% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.9% in Lebanon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.