4691 Pine Cir

Forest Park, GA 30294

$145,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,025 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Active · 116 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,837/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $462/mo
• Annual: $5,539/yr
• Cap rate: 10.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.64%
• DSCR: 1.61
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $462 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#209 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment D-.
• Clayton County (suburban): math 11% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #155 of 174 in GA (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Anderson Elementary School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,144 of 1,228 statewide, top 94%, 504 students, 90% FRL); Adamson Middle School (math 15% / reading 32%, grade F, #319 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 557 students, 90% FRL); Morrow High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #277 of 424 statewide, top 67%, 1,980 students, 91% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 254 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 865 units permitted in Clayton County in 2024 (448 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clayton County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $145k implies a 255% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 5.2% in Forest Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.