4691 Pine Cir · Forest Park, GA 30294

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,025 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 1972 0.36 ac lot $141/sqft · 32% below area Est $214k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

great home for investor or owner occupant 5 minutes to 675

Key facts

• 0.36 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1972

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $462 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 5.2% in Forest Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#209 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment D-.
• Clayton County (suburban): math 11% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #155 of 174 in GA (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Anderson Elementary School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,144 of 1,228 statewide, top 94%, 504 students, 90% FRL); Adamson Middle School (math 15% / reading 32%, grade F, #319 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 557 students, 90% FRL); Morrow High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #277 of 424 statewide, top 67%, 1,980 students, 91% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 254 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 865 units permitted in Clayton County in 2024 (448 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clayton County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $145k implies a 255% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.64%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,743
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -32.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2600 Burkshire Rd	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,086 (+6%)	13mo	$184,900	$170	46
2571 Burkshire Rd	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,155 (+13%)	17mo	$185,000	$160	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $8,850
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $58,047
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30294

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,837 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $462

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,253

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $544	-5% $503	+0% $462	+5% $421	+10% $380
Rent	-10% $316	-5% $389	+0% $462	+5% $534	+10% $607
Rate	-1.0pp $535	-0.5pp $498	base $462	+0.5pp $424	+1.0pp $386

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2655 Old Toney Rd Ellenwood, GA	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,450	$1.12	45d	1	0.26mi
4225 Cottage Ln Conley, GA	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,400	$1.04	6d	1	1.38mi
4446 Falcon Ct Conley, GA	3.0	1.5	1025	$1,600	$1.56	6d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,000 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $145,000 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-02-24
    listed $145,000 New 58-char remark

    Show marketing remark (58 chars)

    great home for investor or owner occupant 5 minutes to 675

16. 2026-02-24
    listed $145,000 Active 58-char remark

    Show marketing remark (58 chars)

    great home for investor or owner occupant 5 minutes to 675

17. 2017-02-01
    historical
18. 2016-08-02
    listed $69,900 New
19. 2016-06-09
    historical
20. 2015-12-09
    listed $75,000 New
21. 2000-10-05
    soldstatus $40,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,025 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,025 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,043
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,763
• − Management: −$1,763
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $3,425
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$822
• After-tax cash flow: $4,717/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clayton County
• NCES district ID: 1301230
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,266
• Composite: 13.41/100
• National rank: #9527
• State rank: #155 of 174 in GA

Livability — Forest Park

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #209
• US rank: #12698

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henry County · 316,359 people
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,983
• Household income: $79,762
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 864.0

Population outlook (Clayton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 310,777 people
• By 2030: 329,762 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 368,052 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 401,196 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 472,488 · +52.0%
• By 2100: 500,446 · +61.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% White 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clayton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+69.2) · D 84.3% · R 15.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: 66.4pp · 2024: 69.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+69.2 2020: D+70.9 2016: D+71.9 2012: D+70.1 2008: D+66.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.99%
• Current HPI: 213.1999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.56%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+254.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Listed $145,000 FMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $145,000 GAMLS
• 2017-02-01 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2016-08-02 Listed $69,900 GAMLS
• 2016-06-09 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2015-12-09 Listed $75,000 GAMLS
• 2000-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $40,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,025 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.