469581 E 815 Rd

Marietta, OK 74960

$149,999D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · Built 2015 · Manufactured · Pending · 216 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,111/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $-150/mo
• Annual: $-1,806/yr
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.40%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (25.9% below list).
• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $111k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#49 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Stilwell (town): math 6% / reading 12% proficiency, ranked #258 of 270 in OK (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Stilwell Es (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #711 of 845 statewide, top 87%, 479 students, 0% FRL); Stilwell Ms (math 6% / reading 10%, grade F, #305 of 345 statewide, top 88%, 275 students, 0% FRL); Stilwell Hs (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #426 of 447 statewide, top 96%, 640 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 73% district-wide (73 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Adair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adair County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.