7113 Deer Run Ln

Brandermill, VA 23112

$319,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,557 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,606/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax + insurance: −$424
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $-38/mo
• Annual: $-453/yr
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.39%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $89,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $319k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-453/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $312k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (18.3% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $261k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#94 in VA, #3,055 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Alberta Smith Elementary (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A+, #37 of 1,108 statewide, top 4%, 626 students, 34% FRL); Bailey Bridge Middle (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C+, #218 of 342 statewide, top 65%, 1,459 students, 33% FRL); Manchester High (math 61% / reading 67%, grade B-, #220 of 319 statewide, top 70%, 2,188 students, 37% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 495 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $148k; list at $319k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.7% in Brandermill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.