7113 Deer Run Ln · Brandermill, VA 23112

$319,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,557 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1990 0.37 ac lot Est $375k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ADORABLE ! This 4 bedroom, 2 Full Baths Cape is ready to go. New Vinyl Siding, New Roof, New Carpet, Freshly Painted, New Fridge, New Countertops, New Kitchen Sink. Located on a peaceful cul de sac.

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• Built 1990
• Listed 31 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot zoned R12

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story design; Resale property; Shingle roof; Vinyl siding with frame and drywall construction
• Construction: Built (actual year); Frame construction with vinyl siding; Drywall interior
• Exterior features: Front porch; Deck; Storage shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooking; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 3 on second level (approx. 14 x 14); Bedroom 2 on first level (approx. 12 x 10); Additional room on second level (approx. 14 x 10)
• Flooring: Partially carpeted; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Full bath on second level with tub and shower; Full bath on first level with tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Laminate counters; Main-level primary bedroom; Bedroom on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-453/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $312k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.7% in Brandermill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#94 in VA, #3,055 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Alberta Smith Elementary (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A+, #37 of 1,108 statewide, top 4%, 626 students, 34% FRL); Bailey Bridge Middle (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C+, #218 of 342 statewide, top 65%, 1,459 students, 33% FRL); Manchester High (math 61% / reading 67%, grade B-, #220 of 319 statewide, top 70%, 2,188 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 495 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $148k; list at $319k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,594 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.39%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $375,237
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7104 Deer Run Ln	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,526 (-2%)	2mo	$355,000	$233	91
13925 Buck Rub Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+3%)	3mo	$392,600	$245	81
14000 Key Deer Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,554 (-0%)	3mo	$392,000	$252	80
13836 Buck Rub Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,430 (-8%)	3mo	$360,000	$252	77
13805 Buck Rub Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,660 (+7%)	1mo	$400,000	$241	73
6924 Velvet Antler Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	2mo	$359,950	$268	71
7018 Whistlers Cove Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-3%)	4mo	$317,000	$210	69
13624 Lucky Debonair Ln	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,601 (+3%)	3mo	$368,000	$230	68
13501 Buck Rub Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,359 (-13%)	4mo	$348,000	$256	63
6903 Whistlers Cove Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,404 (-10%)	3mo	$337,500	$240	58
13642 Decidedly Ct	0.48mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,656 (+6%)	4mo	$380,000	$229	57
13631 Decidedly Ct	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,768 (+14%)	1mo	$358,000	$202	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-55,972
• Equity at exit: $47,564

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-59,424
• Equity at exit: $27,581

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23112

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 495
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,606 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,690/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $-38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,654

Max offer price $312,330

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $143	-5% $53	+0% $-38	+5% $-128	+10% $-218
Rent	-10% $-244	-5% $-141	+0% $-38	+5% $65	+10% $168
Rate	-1.0pp $123	-0.5pp $43	base $-38	+0.5pp $-120	+1.0pp $-205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7516 Flag Tail Dr Midlothian, VA	3.0	2.0	1684	$2,395	$1.42	5d	1	0.55mi
13364 Diamond Ridge Dr Midlothian, VA	3.0	2.5	2012	$2,500	$1.24	5d	1	0.93mi
14655 Hancock Towns Dr Chesterfield, VA	3.0	2.5	1525	$2,500	$1.64	16d	1	1.37mi
5200 Hunt Master Dr Midlothian, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	875	$2,199	$2.51	5d	27	1.45mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $319,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    price $319,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $325,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    listed $325,000 Active
18. 2026-05-16
    historical $325,000
19. 2014-03-31
    soldstatus $148,000
20. 2014-03-28
    soldstatus $148,000 199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (199 chars)

    ADORABLE ! This 4 bedroom, 2 Full Baths Cape is ready to go. New Vinyl Siding, New Roof, New Carpet, Freshly Painted, New Fridge, New Countertops, New Kitchen Sink. Located on a peaceful cul de sac.

21. 2014-02-19
    historical 199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (199 chars)

    ADORABLE ! This 4 bedroom, 2 Full Baths Cape is ready to go. New Vinyl Siding, New Roof, New Carpet, Freshly Painted, New Fridge, New Countertops, New Kitchen Sink. Located on a peaceful cul de sac.

22. 2014-01-06
    listed $144,900 199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (199 chars)

    ADORABLE ! This 4 bedroom, 2 Full Baths Cape is ready to go. New Vinyl Siding, New Roof, New Carpet, Freshly Painted, New Fridge, New Countertops, New Kitchen Sink. Located on a peaceful cul de sac.

23. 2013-12-28
    historical
24. 2013-06-27
    listed $151,990
25. 2013-04-24
    soldstatus $95,000
26. 2013-03-01
    historical
27. 2013-01-17
    listed $115,000
28. 2011-10-12
    historical
29. 2011-04-27
    listed $99,950
30. 2011-04-14
    historical
31. 2010-10-16
    listed $135,000
32. 2010-10-15
    historical
33. 2010-08-22
    listed $174,950
34. 1990-09-04
    soldstatus $75,250

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,690 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,690 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,271
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$2,690
• − Insurance: −$2,392
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,502
• − Management: −$2,502
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable loss: −$5,964
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,431
• After-tax cash flow: $978/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Brandermill

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #94
• US rank: #3055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• City population: 56,364
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 57,016
• Household income: $116,465
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 897.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -224.87%
• Current HPI: 277.4841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+331.9% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $325,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-05-16 Coming Soon $325,000 CVRMLS
• 2014-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $148,000 Public Records
• 2014-03-28 Sold (MLS) $148,000 CVRMLS
• 2014-02-19 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2014-01-06 Listed $144,900 CVRMLS
• 2013-12-28 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2013-06-27 Listed $151,990 CVRMLS
• 2013-04-24 Sold (MLS) $95,000 CVRMLS
• 2013-03-01 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2013-01-17 Listed $115,000 CVRMLS
• 2011-10-12 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2011-04-27 Listed $99,950 CVRMLS
• 2011-04-14 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2010-10-16 Listed $135,000 CVRMLS
• 2010-10-15 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2010-08-22 Listed $174,950 CVRMLS
• 1990-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $75,250 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,690 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.