1316 North Raguet St

Lufkin, TX 75904

$200,000D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1953 · SingleFamily · Active · 117 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,421/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $-71/mo
• Annual: $-852/yr
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.52%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-852/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (28.9% below list).
• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $142k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#240 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lufkin ISD (town): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #446 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.6% in Lufkin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.