1316 North Raguet St · Lufkin, TX 75904

$200,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 1953 0.64 ac lot $278/sqft · 184% above area Est $235k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Special – Prime Commercial Opportunity on N Raguet! Located on a high-visibility thoroughfare in Lufkin, this property offers a unique opportunity for those ready to roll up their sleeves and bring new life to a versatile space. The lot includes a 2400sf commercial building in need of significant repairs, a separate house 2726sf (1403 Crockett), and a garage apartment -720sf —all ready for renovation or redevelopment. Whether you're looking to restore and rent out, reimagine the space for a business venture, or clear and build new, the potential here is undeniable. Zoned for commercial use and minutes from downtown, this property is priced with its condition in mind and ready for your vision. Sold as-is. No repairs will be made. Building size, taxes, and acres reflect all properties combined.

Key facts

• Versatile space
• 0.64 acre lot
• Built 1953

Tags

• PRIME COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY
• HIGH VISIBILITY THOROUGHFARE
• VERSATILE SPACE
• ZONED FOR COMMERCIAL USE
• MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-852/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (28.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.6% in Lufkin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#240 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lufkin ISD (town): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #446 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,111 (28.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.52%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,000
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -14.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-37,023
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-38,442
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75904

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,421 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $738/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $-71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,511

Max offer price $187,464

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $42	-5% $-14	+0% $-71	+5% $-128	+10% $-184
Rent	-10% $-183	-5% $-127	+0% $-71	+5% $-15	+10% $41
Rate	-1.0pp $30	-0.5pp $-20	base $-71	+0.5pp $-123	+1.0pp $-176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3301 Lotus Ln Lufkin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	734	$1,145	$1.56	44d	3	1.09mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $200,000 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $200,000 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 98 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $200,000 Active 97 DOM
17. 2025-07-02
    listed $200,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (825 chars)

    Investor Special – Prime Commercial Opportunity on N Raguet! Located on a high-visibility thoroughfare in Lufkin, this property offers a unique opportunity for those ready to roll up their sleeves and bring new life to a versatile space. The lot includes a 2400sf commercial building in need of significant repairs, a separate house 2726sf (1403 Crockett), and a garage apartment -720sf —all ready for renovation or redevelopment. Whether you're looking to restore and rent out, reimagine the space for a business venture, or clear and build new, the potential here is undeniable. Zoned for commercial use and minutes from downtown, this property is priced with its condition in mind and ready for your vision. Sold as-is. No repairs will be made. Building size, taxes, and acres reflect all properties combined.

18. 2025-07-02
    listed $200,000 Active 825-char remark

    Show marketing remark (825 chars)

    Investor Special – Prime Commercial Opportunity on N Raguet! Located on a high-visibility thoroughfare in Lufkin, this property offers a unique opportunity for those ready to roll up their sleeves and bring new life to a versatile space. The lot includes a 2400sf commercial building in need of significant repairs, a separate house 2726sf (1403 Crockett), and a garage apartment -720sf —all ready for renovation or redevelopment. Whether you're looking to restore and rent out, reimagine the space for a business venture, or clear and build new, the potential here is undeniable. Zoned for commercial use and minutes from downtown, this property is priced with its condition in mind and ready for your vision. Sold as-is. No repairs will be made. Building size, taxes, and acres reflect all properties combined.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $738 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,922/yr (+$244/mo · 396.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,053
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$738
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,364
• − Management: −$1,364
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$4,434
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,064
• After-tax cash flow: $213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lufkin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828550
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,009
• Composite: 32.81/100
• National rank: #5625
• State rank: #446 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lufkin

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #240
• US rank: #5792

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lufkin, TX
• County: Angelina County · 62,696 people
• City population: 62,696
• Metro: Lufkin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,462
• Household income: $60,205
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1159.0

Population outlook (Angelina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,174 people
• By 2030: 90,697 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 91,291 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 91,168 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 88,961 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 80,590 · -10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 12% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Angelina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.0) · D 23.7% · R 75.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -52.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.0 2020: R+46.1 2016: R+47.3 2012: R+43.9 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.71%
• Current HPI: 213.4236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lufkin, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-02 Listed $200,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-07-02 Listed $200,000 Deep East Texas MLS

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $738 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.