5199 E Fm 1988

Livingston, TX 77351

$180,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 184 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,297/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-180/mo
• Annual: $-2,157/yr
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.28%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-180 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (28.0% below list).
• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,113 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1186 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 10186% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.0% in Livingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?