5199 E Fm 1988 · Livingston, TX 77351

$180,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 184 Days on market

Built 1970 0.46 ac lot $105/sqft · 18% below area Est $221k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fully upgraded and move-in ready, this property offers a spacious layout filled with natural light and a large lot with endless possibilities for outdoor living or future expansion. The home features a generous living room perfect for entertaining, easy access to the freeway for commuting convenience, and all appliances will be installed prior to closing upon receiving an offer —making it the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and opportunity.

Key facts

• Large lot
• Natural light
• Generous living room

Tags

• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• LARGE LOT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• GENEROUS LIVING ROOM
• EASY ACCESS TO FREEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-180 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.9% in Livingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,113 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1186 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 10186% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,624 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.29%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,816
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -18.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
227 Oliver Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,559 (-9%)	10mo	$265,000	$170	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-40,650
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-50,197
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1186
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,296 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,224/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,524

Max offer price $148,165

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 459-char remark

   Show marketing remark (459 chars)

   Fully upgraded and move-in ready, this property offers a spacious layout filled with natural light and a large lot with endless possibilities for outdoor living or future expansion. The home features a generous living room perfect for entertaining, easy access to the freeway for commuting convenience, and all appliances will be installed prior to closing upon receiving an offer —making it the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and opportunity.

2. 2026-05-11
   historical $1,750

   Show marketing remark (459 chars)

   Fully upgraded and move-in ready, this property offers a spacious layout filled with natural light and a large lot with endless possibilities for outdoor living or future expansion. The home features a generous living room perfect for entertaining, easy access to the freeway for commuting convenience, and all appliances will be installed prior to closing upon receiving an offer —making it the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and opportunity.

3. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 459-char remark

   Show marketing remark (459 chars)

   Fully upgraded and move-in ready, this property offers a spacious layout filled with natural light and a large lot with endless possibilities for outdoor living or future expansion. The home features a generous living room perfect for entertaining, easy access to the freeway for commuting convenience, and all appliances will be installed prior to closing upon receiving an offer —making it the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and opportunity.

4. 2025-11-14
   listed $1,750
5. 2025-11-13
   listed $180,000 Active 459-char remark

   Show marketing remark (459 chars)

   Fully upgraded and move-in ready, this property offers a spacious layout filled with natural light and a large lot with endless possibilities for outdoor living or future expansion. The home features a generous living room perfect for entertaining, easy access to the freeway for commuting convenience, and all appliances will be installed prior to closing upon receiving an offer —making it the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and opportunity.

6. 2025-10-28
   historical
7. 2025-07-26
   price $199,999
8. 2025-06-06
   listed $210,000 Active
9. 2022-10-17
   soldstatus
10. 1995-11-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,224 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,294 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,070/yr (+$89/mo · 48.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,555
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,224
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,244
• − Management: −$1,244
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$5,377
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,290
• After-tax cash flow: $-872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,531
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5767
• State rank: #459 of 826 in TX

Livability — Livingston

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1113
• US rank: #19723

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• City population: 37,143
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Rental Removed $1,750 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed for Rent $1,750 HARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $199,999 HARMLS
• 2025-06-06 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2022-10-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-11-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+15.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,224 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.