522 4th St

Manchester, GA 31816

$141,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,216 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Active · 366 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,450/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$739
• Tax + insurance: −$315
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $92/mo
• Annual: $1,099/yr
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.78%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $39,480

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $141k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $141k).
• It's been on market 366 days — a 12% lower offer ($124k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $124k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($975 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#525 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Meriwether County (rural): math 18% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #144 of 174 in GA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 180 units permitted in Meriwether County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Meriwether County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $141k implies a 355% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.1% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 366 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.