522 4th St · Manchester, GA 31816

$141,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,216 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 366 Days on market

Built 1954 Est $213k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice older brick home built in 1954. Metal roof. Fireplace. Interior offers 2216 sqft, 65BR/2BA, hardwood flooring, walk in closet, separate laundry room, separate dining room, bonus room, central heat & air, public water & sewer. Outbuilding. Great opportunity as a rental investment. Needs cosmetic attention.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Lvp flooring
• Listed 365 days

Tags

• LVP FLOORING
• WIDE AND SPACIOUS LOT
• SHED ON A CONCRETE SLAB
• METAL ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unbranded virtual tour available; Listing broker: Coldwell Banker / Kennon, Parker, Duncan & Davis; Listing agent: Tyler Ward

Exterior

• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; 2-story
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.6 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Subdivision: ARROWHEAD ESTATES; Directions provided to property

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $141k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $141k).
• Recommended offer: $124k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.1% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#525 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Meriwether County (rural): math 18% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #144 of 174 in GA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 180 units permitted in Meriwether County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($975 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Meriwether County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 366 days — a 12% lower offer ($124k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $141k implies a 355% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,080 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 366 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.78%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $212,736
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
596 Mayes Way	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,192 (-1%)	11mo	$206,000	$94	72
311 5th St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,942 (-12%)	4mo	$186,900	$96	64
408 Broad St	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,130 (-4%)	6mo	$145,000	$68	61
265 Mountain Ridge Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	2,377 (+7%)	14mo	$325,000	$137	52
219 5th St	0.35mi	3/3.0	1,922 (-13%)	21mo	$190,000	$99	40
811 Pinecrest Dr	0.61mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,022 (-9%)	19mo	$180,000	$89	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $82,694
• Equity at exit: $127,024

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.06×
• Total profit: $239,076
• Equity at exit: $273,932

Cash invested: $39,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31816

• Home prices YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$739
• Tax from tax record: −$256 /mo · $3,069/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,334

Max offer price $141,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,250
• Closing costs: $4,230
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
213 Walker Ave Manchester, GA	4.0	2.5	1600	$1,450	$0.91	19d	1	0.34mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $141,000 Active 366 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $141,000 Active 365 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $141,000 Active 364 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $141,000 Active 363 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $141,000 Active 362 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $141,000 Active 360 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 693-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $141,000 Active 359 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,069 · $256/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,069 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,898
• − Property taxes: −$3,069
• − Insurance: −$705
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$4,102
• Taxable loss: −$1,158
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$278
• After-tax cash flow: $1,377/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Meriwether County
• NCES district ID: 1303630
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $36,287
• Composite: 16.59/100
• National rank: #9175
• State rank: #144 of 174 in GA

Livability — Manchester

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #525
• US rank: #23555

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manchester, GA
• Population (ZIP): 4,872

Population outlook (Meriwether County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,554 people
• By 2030: 18,482 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 16,204 · -17.1%
• By 2050: 14,030 · -28.2%
• By 2075: 9,539 · -51.2%
• By 2100: 6,136 · -68.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 48% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Meriwether

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.5) · D 37.1% · R 62.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -5.4pp · 2024: -25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.5 2020: R+20.6 2016: R+15.4 2012: R+5.7 2008: R+5.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.75%
• Current HPI: 298.3716
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+88.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Relisted — CBOR
• 2026-05-02 Delisted — CBOR
• 2026-02-12 Relisted — CBOR
• 2026-02-01 Delisted — CBOR
• 2025-12-12 Relisted — CBOR
• 2025-12-02 Delisted — CBOR
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $141,000 CBOR
• 2025-04-17 Listed $175,000 CBOR
• 2015-09-01 Price Changed $31,000 GAMLS
• 2014-09-29 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2014-09-29 Sold (MLS) $31,000 GAMLS
• 2014-09-08 Pending — GAMLS
• 2014-09-08 Price Changed $37,500 GAMLS
• 2014-08-15 Listed $37,500 GAMLS
• 2002-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records
• 1999-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,069 · +136.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.