3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,216 sqft ·
Built 1910
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 130 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,159/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$314
Tax + insurance
−$144
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$243
Net cashflow
$457/mo
Annual
$5,483/yr
Cap rate
15.45%
Cash-on-cash
32.69%
DSCR
2.45
1% rule
1.93%
Cash to close
$16,772
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $457 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#293 in PA, #2,594 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
Ambridge Area SD (suburban): math 23% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #408 of 539 in PA (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 272 units permitted in Beaver County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).
Beaver County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $18k; list at $60k implies a 242% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 6.6% in Ambridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-W5QQMW4S6AF636
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29