12510 W Santa FE Ln

El Mirage, AZ 85335

$310,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,949 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 245 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,113/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax + insurance: −$220
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-210/mo
• Annual: $-2,515/yr
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.90%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $86,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-210 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (31.9% below list).
• It's been on market 245 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $211k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#112 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Surprise Elementary School (math 27% / reading 38%, grade F, #502 of 1,109 statewide, top 45%, 771 students, 72% FRL); Valley Vista High School (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #133 of 381 statewide, top 35%, 2,464 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 41% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 132 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $89k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.5% in El Mirage — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 245 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.