731 St Paul St

Lewisburg, PA 17837

$309,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,666 sqft · Built 1964 · Other · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,717/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax + insurance: −$551
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$570
• Net cashflow: $-25/mo
• Annual: $-298/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.34%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $86,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $309k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-298/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (12.1% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $272k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#279 in PA, #2,468 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: housing C-, commute F, employment F.
• Lewisburg Area SD (town): math 65% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #31 of 539 in PA (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 49 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Union County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $309k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.9% in Lewisburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.