1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
720 sqft ·
Built 2014
· Other
· Active
· 440 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$879/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$472
Tax + insurance
−$86
HOA
−$17
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$185
Net cashflow
$119/mo
Annual
$1,424/yr
Cap rate
7.88%
Cash-on-cash
5.65%
DSCR
1.25
1% rule
0.98%
Cash to close
$25,200
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $90k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $119 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $88k (2.4% below list).
It's been on market 440 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $2k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,196 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
Fairfield ISD (town): math 33% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #475 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Fairfield El (391 students, 71% FRL); Fairfield J H (math 28% / reading 36%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 409 students, 59% FRL); Fairfield H S (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 489 students, 52% FRL).
Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Freestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Freestone County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 440 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
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· Data 2 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29