TBD FM 3371

Thornton, TX 76687

$114,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 306 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,087/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $65/mo
• Annual: $781/yr
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.43%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $32,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($781/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (5.4% below list).
• It's been on market 306 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($794 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,120 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Groesbeck ISD (rural): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #634 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: H O Whitehurst El (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 501 students, 73% FRL); Groesbeck Middle (math 28% / reading 41%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 277 students, 70% FRL); Groesbeck H S (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 458 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Limestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Limestone County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 0.5% in Thornton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 306 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.