TBD FM 3371 · Thornton, TX 76687

$114,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily · 305 Days on market

Built 2020 1.00 ac lot ↓ 25% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 2020
• Listed 305 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment resources available
• HOA & community: Subdivision: out/limestone

Exterior

• Utilities: City water/sewer
• Home design: Pre-owned manufactured home; Approximately 4 years old
• Construction: Composition roof; Built by CMH Manufacturing Inc
• Exterior features: Siding exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (12 x 10)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom with full bath (11 x 12); Second bedroom (9 x 7); Third bedroom (12 x 8)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bath with separate tub and shower (8 x 4)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: All window coverings remain; One living area
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($781/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 0.5% in Thornton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,120 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Groesbeck ISD (rural): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #634 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Limestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($794 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Limestone County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 305 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $101,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 305 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.43%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $5,797
• Equity at exit: $38,680

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $31,399
• Equity at exit: $50,983

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76687

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,087 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,724/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,005

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $105	+0% $65	+5% $25	+10% $-14
Rent	-10% $-21	-5% $22	+0% $65	+5% $108	+10% $151
Rate	-1.0pp $123	-0.5pp $94	base $65	+0.5pp $35	+1.0pp $5

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $114,900 Active 305 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,900 Active 303 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,900 Active 302 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,900 Active 301 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,900 Active 300 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,900 Active 298 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $114,900 Active 297 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,900 Active 294 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,900 Active 293 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $114,900 Active 292 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,900 Active 291 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,900 Active 288 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,900 Active 287 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,900 Active 286 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,900 Active 285 DOM
16. 2026-05-17
    price $114,900
17. 2026-05-16
    status Back on Market
18. 2025-07-11
    historical
19. 2025-01-30
    price $139,900
20. 2024-10-14
    listed $152,900 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,050
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$1,724
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,044
• − Management: −$1,044
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable loss: −$1,115
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$268
• After-tax cash flow: $1,048/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Groesbeck ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821810
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $44,929
• Composite: 25.3/100
• National rank: #7487
• State rank: #634 of 826 in TX

Livability — Thornton

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1120
• US rank: #19777

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,875

Population outlook (Limestone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,396 people
• By 2030: 23,214 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 22,829 · -2.4%
• By 2050: 22,516 · -3.8%
• By 2075: 22,088 · -5.6%
• By 2100: 20,354 · -13.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Limestone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.9) · D 21.2% · R 78.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -56.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.9 2020: R+50.3 2016: R+52.3 2012: R+40.7 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.91%
• Current HPI: 229.4399
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-24.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $114,900 LERA
• 2026-05-16 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-07-11 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-01-30 Price Changed $139,900 LERA
• 2024-10-14 Listed $152,900 LERA