433 Elliots Ln

Dahlonega, GA 30533

$379,000D-

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,701 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Active · 358 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,497/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,988
• Tax + insurance: −$331
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-346/mo
• Annual: $-4,149/yr
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.91%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $106,120

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $379k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-346 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $318k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (34.1% below list).
• It's been on market 358 days — a 12% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $250k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#241 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, housing D.
• Lumpkin County (rural): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #41 of 174 in GA (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 378 active listings in the ZIP; 277 units permitted in Lumpkin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lumpkin County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $379k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Dahlonega — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 358 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.