297 Jetty Way

Four Corners, FL 33897

$409,000D-

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,293 sqft · Built 2021 · Townhouse · Active · 134 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,762/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,145
• Tax + insurance: −$761
• HOA: −$791
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$580
• Net cashflow: $-1,515/mo
• Annual: $-18,175/yr
• Cap rate: 1.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.87%
• DSCR: 0.29
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $114,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath townhouse listed at $409k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (65.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (32.5% below list).
• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($360k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $142k (65.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $337 of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#453 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Loughman Oaks Elementary School (math 36% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,670 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 1,052 students, 37% FRL); Lake Alfred Polytech Academy (math 41% / reading 43%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 645 students, 59% FRL); Davenport High School (2,333 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 60% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 837 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 65d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.8% vs local median 3.3% in Four Corners — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $2,762/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 27% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 65% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.