10823 Harper Rd

Fredonia, KS 66736

$30,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,589 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Pending · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,288/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $810/mo
• Annual: $9,721/yr
• Cap rate: 38.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 115.72%
• DSCR: 6.15
• 1% rule: 4.29%
• Cash to close: $8,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $810 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $29k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $333 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#155 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Fredonia (rural): math 19% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #147 of 169 in KS (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wilson County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.