10823 Harper Rd · Fredonia, KS 66736

$30,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,589 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1920 1.20 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Key facts

• Concrete floor
• 1.2 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• LARGE WELL MAINTAINED SHOP
• CONCRETE FLOOR

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Tax amount listed (not included per instructions)
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Lagoon sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Other subtype; 2-story floor plan; Facing/entry level not specified
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Approximately 101 years or older
• Exterior features: 1.2-acre lot; Flood plain status unknown; Directions: From Fredonia, KS go south on Harper Rd, cross railroad tracks; property is on the east side of the road.; Maintenance provided

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (three on the second floor, one on the first floor)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wood heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $810 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $29k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#155 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Fredonia (rural): math 19% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #147 of 169 in KS (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $333 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wilson County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $29,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 115.72%
• DSCR: 6.15
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $157,929
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10823 Harper Rd	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,589 (0%)	1mo	$30,000	$12	100
202 N 6th St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,440 (-6%)	7mo	$156,000	$64	54
121 N 6th St	0.49mi	4/1.5	2,391 (-8%)	14mo	$129,999	$54	51
103 S 8th St	0.53mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,918 (+13%)	22mo	$179,000	$61	31
7839 1000 Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,306 (-11%)	18mo	$254,999	$111	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.11% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.86×
• Total profit: $49,206
• Equity at exit: $7,085

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.29×
• Total profit: $111,653
• Equity at exit: $7,306

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 66736

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,288 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$38 /mo · $450/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $810

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $831	-5% $820	+0% $810	+5% $800	+10% $789
Rent	-10% $708	-5% $759	+0% $810	+5% $861	+10% $912
Rate	-1.0pp $825	-0.5pp $818	base $810	+0.5pp $802	+1.0pp $794

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   listed $30,000 Active
3. 2020-06-05
   historical
4. 2016-06-06
   listed $64,500
5. 1996-02-01
   soldstatus $25,000
6. 1994-04-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,454
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$450
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,236
• − Management: −$1,236
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $9,828
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,359
• After-tax cash flow: $7,362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fredonia
• NCES district ID: 2006270
• Math proficiency: 19% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $36,652
• Composite: 20.33/100
• National rank: #8609
• State rank: #147 of 169 in KS

Livability — Fredonia

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #7426

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,517

Population outlook (Wilson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,872 people
• By 2030: 7,383 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 6,533 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 5,923 · -24.8%
• By 2075: 5,134 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 4,788 · -39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Wilson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.4) · D 18.0% · R 80.3% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.8pp · 2024: -62.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.4 2020: R+61.5 2016: R+63.1 2012: R+54.0 2008: R+40.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.11%
• Current HPI: 153.1194
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+20.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Listed $30,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-05 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-06 Listed $64,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1994-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records