317 W End Ave

Moberly, MO 65270

$30,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Pending · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,090/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $675/mo
• Annual: $8,103/yr
• Cap rate: 33.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 96.47%
• DSCR: 5.29
• 1% rule: 3.63%
• Cash to close: $8,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $675 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $30k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in MO, #3,045 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Moberly (town): math 30% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #246 of 324 in MO (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Moberly Middle (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #215 of 391 statewide, top 56%, 497 students, 59% FRL); Moberly Sr. High (math 2% / reading 52%, grade F, #417 of 521 statewide, top 80%, 691 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 25 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Randolph County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 33.3% vs local median 4.5% in Moberly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.