317 W End Ave · Moberly, MO 65270

$30,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1920 $30/sqft · 74% below area ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity for buyers looking for a project. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is being offered AS-IS and priced to sell. The property includes the main 53' x 100' lot plus an additional 50' x 190' lot behind the home, providing extra space and future potential.

Key facts

• Listed 23 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Lot dimensions approximately 53 x 100 and 50 x 190; Zoned R-1 (One-family dwelling)
• Exterior features: Covered front porch

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Basement present; Total of 1 room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $675 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $30k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 33.3% vs local median 4.5% in Moberly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in MO, #3,045 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Moberly (town): math 30% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #246 of 324 in MO (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Moberly Middle (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #215 of 391 statewide, top 56%, 497 students, 59% FRL); Moberly Sr. High (math 2% / reading 52%, grade F, #417 of 521 statewide, top 80%, 691 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 25 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randolph County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $29,550 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 96.47%
• DSCR: 5.29
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $114,632
• List price: $30,000
• Delta: -73.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1123 Concannon St	0.39mi	3/1.0	968 (-4%)	1mo	$148,000	$153	74
1029 Concannon St	0.34mi	3/2.0	960 (-5%)	2mo	$165,000	$172	71
319 S 6th St	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	966 (-4%)	7mo	$89,900	$93	63
1007 Myra St	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	950 (-6%)	11mo	$145,000	$153	60
126 Bedford St	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (-8%)	11mo	$115,000	$124	59
620 Burkholder St	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,150 (+14%)	6mo	$159,500	$139	58
837 Myra St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,130 (+12%)	7mo	$149,500	$132	56
612 S 4th St	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,066 (+6%)	1mo	$35,000	$33	52
1204 Fisk Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	954 (-5%)	8mo	$159,900	$168	50
707 S 5th St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,150 (+14%)	2mo	$179,900	$156	38
1412 Buchanan St	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-14%)	2mo	$92,500	$107	37
1312 Concannon St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,155 (+15%)	12mo	$140,000	$121	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 97.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.54×
• Total profit: $38,149
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.55×
• Total profit: $88,612
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65270

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,090 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $192/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $675

Break-even live

Break-even rent $235

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
204 Cockrell Dr Moberly, MO	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,090	$0.95	43d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-04
   price $30,000 263-char remark
2. 2026-05-04
   price $30,000 263-char remark
3. 2026-04-29
   listed $50,000 Active 263-char remark
4. 2026-04-29
   listed $50,000 Active 263-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $192 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $291 · $24/mo
• Expected delta: +$99/yr (+$8/mo · 51.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$192
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,046
• − Management: −$1,046
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $8,092
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,942
• After-tax cash flow: $6,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moberly
• NCES district ID: 2921100
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $36,160
• Composite: 27.35/100
• National rank: #6984
• State rank: #246 of 324 in MO

Livability — Moberly

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #3045

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moberly, MO
• Population (ZIP): 16,762

Population outlook (Randolph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,596 people
• By 2030: 24,213 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 23,184 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 22,081 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 18,994 · -22.8%
• By 2100: 15,070 · -38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randolph

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.2) · D 23.3% · R 75.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.9pp toward R · 2008: -23.3pp · 2024: -52.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.2 2020: R+51.5 2016: R+50.9 2012: R+36.6 2008: R+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.15%
• Current HPI: 199.9743
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-40.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — CBORMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $30,000 HMMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $30,000 CBORMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $50,000 CBORMLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $192 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.