304 Vine Ln

North Tonawanda, NY 14228

$314,900D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,319/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax + insurance: −$554
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-373/mo
• Annual: $-4,480/yr
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.08%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $88,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-373 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (26.4% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $232k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#30 in NY, #518 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Sweet Home Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #342 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Heights Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 406 students, 36% FRL); Sweet Home Middle School (math 21% / reading 52%, grade F, #464 of 729 statewide, top 64%, 768 students, 54% FRL); Sweet Home Senior High School (math 93% / reading 87%, grade A+, #238 of 1,100 statewide, top 23%, 1,072 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $109k; list at $315k implies a 189% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in North Tonawanda — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.