304 Vine Ln · North Tonawanda, NY 14228

$314,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1971 8,125 sqft lot $234/sqft · 20% below area Est $391k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the heart of the Sweet Home School District, 304 Vine Lane is a beautifully maintained 1,344-square-foot traditional colonial that perfectly blends classic charm with essential modern updates. The inviting interior features an expansive living room designed for effortless entertaining, leading into a spacious kitchen complete with white cabinetry and a formal dining room for more intimate gatherings. Upstairs, you will find three comfortable bedrooms and a newly renovated full bathroom featuring custom tile work and a modern walk-in shower. Significant mechanical upgrades provide lasting peace of mind, including a brand-new full tear-off roof (2025) and an updated electrical serv

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Spacious kitchen
• Custom tile work

Tags

• EXPANSIVE LIVING ROOM
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• NEWLY RENOVATED FULL BATHROOM
• CUSTOM TILE WORK
• MODERN WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity available with circuit breakers; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story house; Existing construction; Rectangular lot near public transit; City street frontage
• Construction: Aluminum siding and brick exterior; Asphalt shingle roof; Poured foundation; Resale property
• Exterior features: Balcony; Patio; Concrete driveway; Fully fenced yard; Shed(s) and storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Tile flooring; Varied flooring types
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Solid surface counters; Full finished basement with sump pump; 6 total rooms (includes living and recreation spaces)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-373 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in North Tonawanda — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#30 in NY, #518 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Sweet Home Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #342 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Heights Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 406 students, 36% FRL); Sweet Home Middle School (math 21% / reading 52%, grade F, #464 of 729 statewide, top 64%, 768 students, 54% FRL); Sweet Home Senior High School (math 93% / reading 87%, grade A+, #238 of 1,100 statewide, top 23%, 1,072 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $109k; list at $315k implies a 189% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $231,900 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.08%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $391,418
• List price: $314,900
• Delta: -19.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
305 Vine Ln	0.03mi	3/1.5	1,388 (+3%)	10mo	$328,000	$236	85
291 Vine Ln	0.04mi	3/1.5	1,388 (+3%)	20mo	$316,000	$228	76
153 Florence Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,366 (+2%)	11mo	$420,000	$307	66
437 Vine Ln	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,375 (+2%)	22mo	$355,250	$258	65
116 Sunset Ct	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,373 (+2%)	3mo	$277,000	$202	65
511 Vine Ln	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,440 (+7%)	10mo	$265,000	$184	60
87 Florence Ln	0.51mi	3/3.0	1,366 (+2%)	14mo	$415,000	$304	55
8 Sweethaven Ct	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,540 (+15%)	17mo	$345,915	$225	42
54 Aegean Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	22mo	$435,000	$302	33
233 Sunset Ct	0.65mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,509 (+12%)	22mo	$405,000	$268	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-74,754
• Equity at exit: $46,953

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-95,500
• Equity at exit: $27,227

Cash invested: $88,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14228

• Home prices YoY: -31.9%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,319 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax from tax record: −$423 /mo · $5,074/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-373

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,792

Max offer price $248,943

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-195	-5% $-284	+0% $-373	+5% $-462	+10% $-552
Rent	-10% $-557	-5% $-465	+0% $-373	+5% $-282	+10% $-190
Rate	-1.0pp $-215	-0.5pp $-293	base $-373	+0.5pp $-455	+1.0pp $-538

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,725
• Closing costs: $9,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
157 Fairgreen Dr Unit Right side Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,300	$1.53	0d	1	0.12mi
1 Apollo Dr Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.5	988	$2,150	$2.18	18d	1	0.64mi
133 Sunshine Dr Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	18d	1	1.34mi
2493 Sweet Home Rd Apt 101 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,850	$2.85	5d	1	1.35mi
2493 Sweet Home Rd Unit 1-106 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	943	$1,782	$1.89	26d	1	1.35mi
2493 Sweet Home Rd Unit 1-201 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	943	$1,904	$2.02	46d	1	1.35mi
2493 Sweet Home Rd Unit 101A Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$3,500	$3.50	46d	1	1.35mi
212 Sunshine Dr Unit Left Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1300	$2,099	$1.61	4d	1	1.39mi
227 Sunshine Dr Unit 227 Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,599	$1.79	0d	1	1.43mi
91 Marine Dr Amherst, NY	3.0	1.0	1291	$2,150	$1.67	46d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-13
   listed $314,900 Active 948-char remark
2. 2003-10-28
   soldstatus $109,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,074 · $423/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,198 · $433/mo
• Expected delta: +$124/yr (+$10/mo · 2.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,828
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,639
• − Property taxes: −$5,074
• − Insurance: −$1,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,226
• − Management: −$2,226
• − Depreciation: −$9,161
• Taxable loss: −$10,073
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,417
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,063/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sweet Home Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,509
• Composite: 44.67/100
• National rank: #2765
• State rank: #342 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Tonawanda

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #518

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 44,241
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 25,350
• Household income: $74,871
• Rent vs Own: 46.9% rent · 53.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1566.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 13% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Chinese 6% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.08%
• Current HPI: 316.3097
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+188.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $314,900 WNYREIS
• 2003-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $109,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,074 · -21.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.