2634 Afton Heights Way

Houston, TX 77051

$299,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,586 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Active · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,225/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$498
• HOA: −$113
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-421/mo
• Annual: $-5,057/yr
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.04%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-421 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (20.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (25.6% below list).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $223k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,225/mo this rent would consume 71% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?